Pakistan Foreign Policy Toward Iran and Afghanistan
Event Featuring:
Overview
Some political commentators optimistically described the collapse of communism as the “end of history.” Dr. Rifaat Hussain points out that while some may still believe this to be true, there will unfortunately never be an “end of geography.” Thus, Pakistan must actively pursue stable relationships with neighbors such as Iran and Afghanistan. Dr. Hussain sees several factors that shape Pakistan's policy towards Iran and Afghanistan. Chief among them are geography, regional geopolitics, the global war on terror and US policy in the region.
Event Summary
A major strategic goal concerning Afghanistan is the maintenance of a friendly regime that will not allow the country to become a staging ground for anti-Pakistan action. The rise of a narco-economy and the empowerment of provincial warlords are destabilizing elements within Afghanistan, which threaten to spill over into the wider region if not properly addressed. Hussain comments that Afghanistan’s transition to a functioning state depends on dealing with these problems. The use of Afghanistan as a bridge to revive ancestral and cultural links to Central Asia is also seen as important to Pakistan. Dr. Hussain posits there is a mutual benefit from Pakistan offering itself as a transit route for land-locked Afghanistan. An emerging relationship with Afghan President Hamid Karzai is a positive step toward a hopeful future.
In the past, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) played an active role in Afghanistan. The post-9/11 world has caused Pakistan to reevaluate this strategy. The ISI Afghanistan Bureau has been merged into the Central Asia Bureau, and Dr. Hussain believes that Pakistan’s sub-imperial behavior in Afghanistan is a mechanism of the past.
Past competition in Afghanistan is a major factor complicating the development of a solid Islamabad-Tehran relationship. The reinforcement of political, commercial, economic, oil, gas, and cultural ties is essential to expanding areas of mutual cooperation between the two countries. Pakistan must avoid becoming a part of US containment of Iran. Thus, the US presence in Afghanistan, as well as Iraq, actually alleviates pressure that would otherwise exist to use Pakistan as a staging area for possible action against Iran.
Dr. Hussain asserts that US-Pakistan cooperation against Iran is greatly exaggerated, although he concedes that a nuclear Iran would be a nightmare for Pakistan. The possibility of a future nuclear alliance between India and Iran is of great concern. Dr. Hussain asserts that these concerns act as proof that A.Q. Khan was not acting under government direction when he lent essential support to Iran in getting their nuclear development program off the ground.
Continued pressure by the United States only hastens the Iranians' move toward nuclear proliferation. Action against Iraq juxtaposed with inaction versus North Korea only proved to Iran that a nuclear deterrent is necessary to avoid US invasion. Dr. Hussain says there are several important questions that will need to be answered regarding US-Pakistan relations. Will the future relationship of the two countries be characterized by a strategic transformation, or simply a tactical convergence? Does short or long-term stability carry more weight? If the United States decides to cultivate a closer relationship with India, how will it affect US-Pakistan relations?
Strong American opposition to the India-Pakistan-Iran pipeline certainly complicates the possible agreement. However, India and Pakistan will not follow American dictates on this issue. Dr. Hussain understands that India represents one of the most energy hungry economies in the world. Pipeline issues have brought India-Pakistan competition into Afghanistan, but it has also given each country a stake in cooperation.
About this Event
Dr. Syed Rifaat Hussain gave this briefing at MEI on April 12, 2005.
Speaker Details
Dr. Hussain is a Professor with the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. Dr. Hussain is the author of several books, including Afghanistan and 9/11: The Anatomy of a Conflict and From Dependence to Intervention: Soviet-Afghan Relations During the Brezhnev Era (1964-1982).
Attributions
Matthew Spivack is the MEI intern who wrote this summary. He is seeking a master’s degree through the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
