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Libya: Prospects for Change

 
Event Summary
Libya: Prospects for Change
September 18, 2006

Event Featuring:

Diederik Vandewall, Professor, Dartmouth College

Overview

Col. Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi's 2003 announcement that Libya would abandon its WMD program and pay over $3 billion in reparations for Pan Am flight 103 and UTA Flight 772 provoked international speculation regarding reform in Libya. Dr. Diederik Vandewalle's discussion outlined the prospects for significant political and economic reform in Libya as a result of its reintegration into the international political community. Vandewalle provided a succinct history of modern Libya, explaining that neither King Idris I nor Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi advocated the development of modern state institutions, which he believes are essential to the successful implementation of economic reforms.

Event Summary

Dr. Vandewalle advocated a state-building approach to economic reform, explaining that current economic reform must be done in the shadow of past institutional development (or lack thereof). He cited the discovery of oil in 1959 and the subsequent influx of capital during the last years of King Idris I's rule, coupled with the development of "formal" and "informal" government structures under Qadhafi, as contributing to the stagnant rate of expansion of modern political and economic institutions.

Whereas under Idris I, the increasing power and influence of the oil companies allowed the leadership to bypass the creation of modern institutions, the implementation of the Jamahiriya (state of the masses) under Qadhafi meant the dismantling of central ministries and banks, as well as the indiscriminate disposal of government documents. By 1986, Libya was enveloped in economic crisis. Although attempts at reform were certainly made, the absence of modern institutions "held [them] off in abeyance." Nevertheless, there was an element of "slow but growing pragmatism" among a group of Libyans who steadily gained influence throughout the economic crisis of the 1980s.

During the 1990s a western-educated technocratic elite began to infiltrate the "informal" political milieu. Vocal debate during General People's Committee meetings concerning the future of government and its political institutions illustrated the growing influence of this elite. During this period, security organizations began to relieve Qadhafi of some of his responsibilities, indicating that his tenure was near its end. The 2003 announcement detailing Libya's reintegration into the international system signified that Qadhafi's "everlasting revolution" was dead. The economic crisis had proven to Libya's "informal" government that an influx of capital from foreign investment could reinvigorate the economy.

Dr. Vandewalle contended that, despite recent progress toward economic modernization, very little could be achieved without the creation of modern political institutions to administer the economic reforms. The current political system acts as a hindrance to reform, owing to its lack of transparency and commitment to the rule of law. Thus, he believes that achieving meaningful economic reform will first require legal reform; this would, in turn, stimulate political and, finally, economic reform.

The prospects for this are unlikely, however. Instead, Vandewalle expects that the capital generated from the reopening of Libyan oil fields to western consumers will be used to preserve the political status quo rather than to build the modern institutions necessary for hitherto elusive economic reform. He also explained that although the revolutionary committees have been marginalized politically, they are likely to reemerge periodically, especially when their role in society and government serves the interests of the regime. Finally, Vandewalle warned that it would behoove the Libyan regime to become more accountable to the public, arguing that a marginalized middle class could have a destabilizing effect.

About this Event

Dr. Diederik Vandewalle offered these remarks at the Middle East Institute Boardroom in Washington, DC on September 18, 2006.

Speaker Details

Dr. Diederik Vandewalle is an associate professor of government specializing in the political economy of North Africa at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. He is also the author of Libya Since Independence: Oil and State-building and the editor of two volumes on Libya and North Africa. He was the recipient of a Social Science Research Council grant and two Regional Fulbright Awards for research in Morocco and Yemen (1997), and the Arab Gulf countries (2005-06), among a number of other awards. As part of his 2005-2006 Fulbright award, he spent 10 months in the Arab Gulf countries investigating the politics of economic reform and development in the region. Dr. Vandewalle has been a Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Institute for International Development and at Harvard's Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

Attributions

This event summary was written by Alex Maass, a recent graduate of Amherst College and current intern in the publications department of the Middle East Institute. Alex majored in Middle Eastern history and French. Henry Bowles peer-edited this summary. He is a recent graduate of Northwestern University where he majored in political science and journalism.

Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Summary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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