Related Resources

Opening the panel, Barbara Slavin, spoke briefly about the current goal of US policy in the region to isolate Iran and its allies. She noted that Gulf Arab states have been increasingly reluctant to buy into the current US policy agenda, hedging their bets against Iran's growth as a regional hegemon. Hamas' recent performance and public relations victory in Gaza coupled with Hizbullah's success in delaying the Lebanese presidential election has added to the perception that Iran and regional allies are doing well. This signifies to GCC states the imminent emergence of a new power order in the region. Due in part to this and to the sense that the US is struggling in its role as a regional power, Slavin stated that Iran has received a warmer reception from GCC states. President Mahmud Ahmedinejad was the first Iranian president to be invited to a Gulf Cooperation Council summit which recently took place in Qatar, where he called for the establishment of economic and security pacts among Persian Gulf states. Also, King ‘Abdullah of Saudi Arabia invited President Ahmedinejad to perform the Hajj, which as been seen by many as a reconciliatory gesture.

Dr. Wahid Hashim, the first panelist to address the audience, focused on relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with particular emphasis on the history of the Shi‘a-Sunni conflict. The Gulf region has been defined by the continuity of the struggle between Shi‘a and Sunni Muslims, and since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Shi‘a Muslims, Persian or otherwise, have increasingly turned to Iran and its clergy for leadership. He argued that prior to the Revolution, a pan-Shi‘ite identity did not exist to unify Arab and Persian Shi‘a under a singular national identity. Following the events of 1979, Iran was able to create such an identity and gather a strong following of Shi‘ite supporters, Dr. Hashim asserted, by exporting their ideology of revolution mainly along Shi‘a lines. Iran was able to garner such support from the non-Iranian Shi‘ite community since Shi‘a Muslims felt they were not being adequately represented in governments dominated by Sunnis, causing Arab Shi‘a in the Gulf to turn elsewhere for ideological leadership, which they found in Iran.

The tensions that once existed along Arab and Persian lines, Hashim declared, have shifted and now divide the Gulf region along Shi‘a and Sunni lines. Iran sees itself as being surrounded by Sunni states, namely and because of this, Dr. Hashim claimed, Iran is seeking to build what he termed as “the Shi‘a bomb” in order to balance its Sunni counterpart and to discourage Sunni interference in Iranian affairs.
Dr. Hashim followed this statement expressing his view that the future of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not without hope. The antipathy and suspicion that exist between the two states is present at the level of government, but not on the street, pointing to the warm reception that Shi‘a on pilgrimage receive in Mecca. He concluded that beginning a new era of bilateral relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite their storied history, would be beneficial to both parties and is contingent upon the cooperation of the two countries' respective governments.

Following Dr. Hashim's presentation on the dynamic of Saudi Arabian relations with Iran, Dr. Ebtisam al-Kitbi addressed the conference on the subject of the Gulf Cooperation Countries' changing stance toward Iran and the United States, focusing on that of the United Arab Emirates. The invasion of Iraq and the US failures there, she said, have contributed to the image that the US administration has lost its credibility and is more the cause of regional instability, rather than its cure. As such the US can no longer expect to impress its policies on Gulf states, adding that the US has yet to come to terms with this reality. As a result, the UAE and GCC countries are beginning to define their own national interests outside of the need for US military support and protection in exchange for a stable oil supply.

With US power declining in the Gulf region, Dr. al-Kitbi explained that GCC states have decided it is a better long-term strategy to engage with an emergent Iran now. This comment sheds light on why President Ahmedinejad was invited to attend the recent GCC summit in Qatar. In light of an expected reduction of US influence in the Gulf region, a trade agreement between Iran and any GCC state could be useful. Improving economic relations between Iran and GCC countries, al-Kitbi stated, would also serve as a vessel to lessen overall political tensions in addition to the economic benefits each country would reap. She added that Iran is eager to engage GCC countries economically because it provides a way for Iran to counter US moves to strangle the Iranian economy.

Dr. al-Kitbi focused the rest of her remarks on the stance of the UAE toward Iran and the crucial factors it would have to consider before making future policy decisions. She listed geographical proximity, Iranian military power, and religious influence, among several other factors, as important considerations the UAE must make in its future dealings with Iran. Of primary interest was her exploration of the economic relations between the two countries. She stated that 8,050 Iranian companies were listed in the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, the worth of Iranian assets in the UAE totaled around 66 billion USD, and that the 2006 volume of trade between the countries stood at around 11 billion USD. The UAE stands to gain a great deal from establishing a free trade agreement with Iran, she said, which would allow Iran a window through which to access the international market.

Concluding her remarks, she noted that the UAE is weighing its options to enhance its ties with the West in the face of Iran's rise to power in the region.

Dr. Sami al-Faraj, the final panelist, spoke about the threats that a nuclear Iran would pose to GCC states, focusing his remarks on Kuwait. Throughout his presentation, he presented the issues facing Kuwait and GCC states concerning the rise of Iran using an extended metaphor of Iran as the ex-girlfriend of the man of the house, a role played by the US, and the impact that letting her back into the household would have for the wives, GCC states, and the neighborhood. Iran sitting down with the US to solve regional problems, he argued, would only erode US influence, a consequence which the GCC states must come to terms with as members of the household under US protection.

Iran as the ex-girlfriend, now an object of interest for the husband despite the fact she poses a danger to the other wives, wants to become the primary power in the region, effectively eclipsing the current wives. One of the problems, al-Faraj noted, is that Iran will not go away. As appealing as eliminating the ex-girlfriend would seem because she is troublesome, it would create havoc for the entire region and pose dire consequences for GCC states. That being said, al-Faraj stated that the GCC outlook toward Iran is that it will certainly become a source of trouble in the future and that GCC states must be prepared to face that eventuality.

Iran, he said, wants to become a hegemonic power on the cheap and could resort to terrorism, war, the antagonism of Shi‘a in GCC states, or even mishaps in Iraq to launch Iran into that position. Given that Iran is likely to obtain nuclear capabilities, GCC states must be prepared to cope with disasters of national proportions. Therefore, the GCC must band together to ensure mutual survival stressing that he spoke not of economic survival, but material survival, as humans regardless of extant religious and/or ethnic divides. There is no way that any of the GCC states could protect themselves without real cooperation, nor without Iran as a partner. He pointed to the fact that Iran's lack of transparency concerning its uranium enrichment program worries GCC states as they are unsure of the security measures set in place on Iran's part to prevent nuclear disaster.

Dr. Sami al-Faraj concluded by suggesting that the US does not need to marry Iran and bring her back into the household. Rather, Iran must have a special status and be aware of its borders and barriers.