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With nearly 1 million Azerbaijani refugees currently living in Armenian-controlled territory and 20 million Azeris comprising two provinces in northwest Iran, the question of how the Azerbaijani nation should be defined has been evolving over the last decade and a half. President Abulfaz Elchibey called for a united Azerbaijan during his brief term as president and his subsequent position as a leading opposition figure. With territorial integrity as his central motivation, Elchibey called for Armenia to retreat from Nagorno-Karabakh, which had previously been under Azeri control.

After failing to succeed with reunification, Elchibey was replaced by the more moderate Heydar Aliyev in 1993. The new president, during an October 10, 1993, address, highlighted the common concern for the “safeguard[ing] of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” Brown explained that Aliyev sought to achieve this by other means than those previously used. He minimized the subject of Iran in government press and called for what Brown characterized as similar to a Zionist movement. According to Aliyev, Azeris in all countries should view Azerbaijan as their cultural center. This diminished the importance of reclaiming the Azeri-populated regions of Iran. With Heydar Aliyev’s recent death, his son, Ilham, has followed the elder Aliyev’s positions.

Brown pointed out that although the Aliyevs put aside the Iran issue, Nagorno-Karabakh remains a source of tension. President Ilham Aliyev is “losing patience” on the issue and although he is “willing to give diplomacy a try, the possibility of a renew[ed] armed conflict exists.” Brown warned that a desire for unification coupled with a belligerency found among young Azeri should not be ignored. He believes, in actuality, that diplomacy is out, absorbing more refugees is impossible, and the most viable option for Azerbaijan is “provoking a crisis, without provoking a war.” Meanwhile, Aliyev will continue to encourage Azeris in Armenia, Iran, and elsewhere to look to Baku as their homeland.