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Dr. Ibrahim described the current environment of the Arab Middle East as “fascinating and heartening,” but he explained that it is the product of serious sacrifice. He acknowledged that the situation for democrats in the Arab world is better than just five years ago.

The elections in Palestine and Iraq and the clamor for democracy in Lebanon are signs of progress, especially given the circumstances under which they were held. He dispelled the idea of the democratic successes being a “mirage,” expressing the belief that the perception of progress reflects the reality. Egypt, however, has undergone different changes. Dr. Ibrahim pointed to the growing feeling of “kifaya” (“enough”) to describe the sentiment of many Egyptians frustrated with the present and possible future situation under President Hosni Mubarak. More significantly, he explained that this sentiment resonates throughout the Arab world for all Arabs who find displeasure in the status quo.

There are four factors contributing to the political shift in the Arab world. Firstly, Dr. Ibrahim explained that the international environment is changing. He highlights the war in Iraq as one of many contributions to change that served to release forces for political change that had been simmering below the surface for years. Secondly, autocratic regimes of the Arab world have lost credibility after years of a cycle of calls for reform and government crackdowns. Dr. Ibrahim suggested that this cycle may be reaching its breaking point. Thirdly, Dr. Ibrahim pointed to the growth of the middle class in the region as a factor in the political changes, citing a developing meritocracy that demands more government accountability. Lastly, in Dr. Ibrahim’s opinion, globalization has been a significant factor. He pointed to the Arab satellite networks that are creating a “new sense of Arab consciousness,” prompting questions about why democracy thrives outside the Arab world but not within.

Dr. Ibrahim also acknowledged that democracy in the Arab world faces serious challenges. He sees civil society as a prerequisite for successful democratic reform but admits that presently many Arab states lack the building blocks of civil society. Islamists present a second challenge. At present, autocrats like President Mubarak are using “scare politics” to create the threatening specter of Islamism and discourage democratic reform. Dr. Ibrahim feels that Islamists should have a place in democratic governments in the Arab world. In response to the perceived threat, he pointed to the successes of Islamist party inclusion in Turkey and Morocco and explained that it is dangerous to have groups without a stake in the political process. From his time as a “prisoner of conscience,” he gathered that Islamists have truly changed and seek a place for themselves in government. Taking a pragmatic approach, he also questioned the feasibility of a successful democratic government without them.

Lastly, Dr. Ibrahim challenged the notion that democracy is not compatible with Arab culture. With regard to the implementation of democracy, he recommended to democrats that they realize that Islamist participation will add legitimacy to democratic governments. As for the role of external elements, he prefers they withhold support for autocrats rather than opting for military intervention.