Related Resources

After decades of political stagnation, the January 2005 elections exemplified Iraq's progress toward democracy. Though there is reason for optimism, the anticipated election results also highlight the quandaries associated with creating a permanent constitution. Mr. Istrabadi predicted the United Iraqi Alliance would win a plurality if not an outright majority in the National Assembly; this outcome would give the Shi'ite coalition considerable leverage in both the National Assembly and the constitutional process. The united list of Kurdish candidates could get 25 percent of the seats, which would result in Kurds accounting for more than their estimated percentage of the population. The Kurdish overrepresentation would come at the expense of central Iraq, due to low Sunni voter turnout in the midst of ongoing violence and calls for a boycott of the elections.

Mr. Istrabadi outlined the range of criteria that could be used in selecting constitutional drafters. The National Assembly members could shoulder the task, to the exclusion of all other parties. This would be an advantage for all those elected, but its major weakness would be the gross under-representation of some regions. Another option is to set up a drafting committee. One plan recommends that the National Assembly appoint drafters and that the assembly members themselves be excluded from the drafting committee. The hybrid alternative would allow National Assembly members to participate in the drafting committee while including non-member appointees from under-represented groups such as the Sunnis. This hybrid option is most logical given the absolute necessity that the new constitution garner support from a broad spectrum of Iraqi society.

The Kurdish assembly members have put forth a serious claim to the position of either president or prime minister. It is clear that all of Iraq's confessional and ethnic groups must have a voice in the new Iraq, yet a debate continues in Baghdad as to whether having specific government posts associated with particular groups is the best way to achieve adequate representation for all. Some advocate avoiding this configuration due to a similar arrangement in Lebanon, which eventually led to a bloody and prolonged civil war.

According to Istrabadi, three issues addressed in the provisional constitution are certain to reemerge in the drafting of the permanent constitution: federalism, Islam, and women's representation in the government. Regarding federalism, he stressed that a highly centralized Iraq did not work; imperatively, therefore, the new constitution must establish a federalist structure. While it is commonly believed that only the Kurds demand this structure, and some suggest federalism could split the country apart, Istrabadi asserted that federalism in this context is an attempt to reintegrate Iraq into one nation. The Kurds have de facto autonomy over their region, and a carefully crafted federalist structure would reconcile and unite the Kurdish north with the rest of Iraq. Control of resources in the various regions is another contentious issue. The provisional government concluded resources belonged to all Iraqis, not just Iraqis living in a specific region.

The roles of religion and women in civic life could be controversial as well. All Iraqi constitutions since 1925 have stated that Islam is the state religion; the controversy now hinges on whether Islam will be proclaimed the source of law or a source of law. Women make up 56 percent of the Iraqi population, after several wars decimated the male population. After much consideration and proposals calling for women to hold up to 40 percent of National Assembly seats, the transitional administrative law mandated that women hold 25 percent of the assembly seats; under that provision, every fourth name on each candidate list should have been that of a woman.

Although Iraq faces several months of constitutional drafting and the heated debate that accompanies it, Mr. Istrabadi urged patience and support as Iraq advances toward a true and fully functioning democracy.