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Ambassador Neumann described two potential outcomes of the US and Afghan governments’ efforts in that country: “audacious success or dismal failure.” The cost of failure is tremendously high and would carry severe regional repercussions. Significant obstacles — namely corruption, narcotics, sectarianism and a weak government — must be overcome in order to achieve success. However, Ambassador Neumann noted that success in dealing with problems of this magnitude is not unprecedented historically, leading him to express increasing optimism that it is also possible in this case. He did nevertheless warn that a likely side effect of success would be an increase in the use of terrorist tactics due to fewer opportunities for insurgents to confront NATO and Afghan forces in a traditional battlefield setting. The future stability of the country rests on the ability of the government to wield popular support and prevent the sort of fragmentation that the Taliban leadership has effectively utilized in the past.

Ambassador Neumann noted the emergence of five encouraging trends:

First, the Afghan Parliament has proven to be a remarkably civilized and responsible institution despite its fledgling status. It has not been crippled by ethnic divides or political gridlock, and operates independently from the President. When faced with crises, the Parliament has shown the ability to compromise.

The second trend is that the Afghan army, while small, is becoming stronger and increasingly able to support itself in the midst of combat. The army is roughly representative of the various ethnicities in the country, making its ability to work well as a unit all the more encouraging.

Third, international donors are becoming increasingly coordinated in their efforts to aid Afghanistan, a task that Ambassador Neumann considers difficult for sovereign states because of their independent nature and natural reluctance to take orders from an outside authority.

The forth and penultimate trend that Ambassador Neumann identified involves narcotics. While poppy production remains a substantial problem, some eradication of the crop has been achieved, particularly in northern Afghanistan where the insurgency is less active. Rejecting strategies of simple crop replacement or aerial spraying, he recommended instead the gradual development of Afghanistan’s rural economies. In order to make progress in the south, he stressed that counterinsurgency and counter-narcotic strategies must be employed simultaneously, without hindering one another.

The final development is that a new attorney general and a stronger Supreme Court and justice system are fighting the rampant corruption that has for so long hampered Afghanistan’s quest for stability. Additionally, individual governors are moving towards becoming servants of the states rather than self-interested powers. As a result of these efforts, many criminals who would have previously gone free have been incarcerated. In a country where the general public often turns to corruption as a natural response to economic insecurity, overhauling such a culture of impunity is a long-term effort that will require strong political will.

Ambassador Neumann concluded by again emphasizing the high cost of failure in Afghanistan. Conversely, success will signal a remarkable achievement, though it will require a long-term US commitment. He expressed concern over the passage of a funding bill currently before the US Congress, stating that it is vital to the ongoing efforts in Afghanistan and must therefore be passed as soon as possible, regardless of what happens with the Iraq portion.