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John L. Moore:Several major issues shape the military balance in the region. Economic problems and a decrease in petroleum revenues have slowed the arms race in the Middle East. Iraq remains under an international embargo, which makes procurement of weapons for that regime difficult. The growing population in Iran has increased its fragility, prohibiting development of traditional conventional capabilities; thus Iranian leaders have placed precedence on attaining weapons of mass destruction and a long-range missile capability. A major concern for the region is now an accidental escalation during war.

Despite the significant and diverse threats presented by Israel's potential adversaries, there are six reasons why Israel still maintains overwhelming military dominance in the region:

* Due to the peace treaties signed by Egypt and Jordan with Israel, Israeli military planners can expect a one-front war with Syria or Lebanon as their most likely combat scenario. This would allow Israel to concentrate its forces, greatly increasing its chances of success in the field.

* Israel enjoys a unique degree of close strategic cooperation with the United States, including joint military training exercises and approximately $2 billion in military aid. The United States is committed to maintaining Israeli superiority in the region.

* Israel has access to the most modern weapon systems, such as advanced aircraft it acquires from the United States. Israel?s own industry has developed satellite systems used for intelligence gathering, accurate early warning radar systems, and tanks comparable to the best in the U.S. military.

* Israeli forces have a high degree of professionalism within the officer corps and enlisted soldiers. Additionally, Israeli military doctrine, tactics and training are superior in quality compared to the Arab states.

* Israel has elite and well-developed intelligence services. Evidence of this was revealed when its intelligence services were able to identify, track and enable the takeover of an arms shipment allegedly destined for the Palestinian Authority.

* Israel has strong deterrent capability, since it is the only country in the region that possesses nuclear weapons and it has never lost a conventional war.

Kenneth Pollack: Despite its military dominance, Israel has a number of concerns regarding U.S. arms sales to Arab countries. The Israeli public relations machine portrays a dire military threat emerging from potential Arab military superiority, although the reality is the opposite. Yet this fear belies a deeper, and more pertinent, fear. Israelis, especially military personnel and policymakers, are concerned with the number of casualties that could be caused by Arab forces wielding more accurate and advanced American weapons. Recent and pending arms sales to Egypt, including air defense and anti-ship weapons, will increase the accuracy of the Egyptian military despite the relatively poor skills of the weapon systems' operators.

Another concern is the timing of American arms sales to Israel?s neighbors. Israel worries about fighting a war with a country that may have WMD capability, and therefore relies on its air force to take out the threat at the beginning of any hostilities. Any improvement in the air defenses of Israel?s potential enemies is thus seen as a significant threat to the entire state of Israel.

Additionally, Arab countries may not recognize that the strategic military balance continues to lie in Israel?s favor. In this scenario, the acquisition of modern weapons may increase the confidence of Arab states, leading to miscalculation and an increased willingness to engage Israel in combat.

In debating sales of weaponry to the Middle East, Congress should consider diplomatic and stability issues. US sales of sophisticated weapons to moderate, stable Arab states will make it more difficult to stop other countries from selling comparable arms to less reliable states. Concerning stability, Jordan?s slowing economy and the question of leadership succession in countries such as Egypt raise concerns about the implications and possible repercussions of arms sales to the region.

Congress should focus on America's long-term interests in the region, considering, for example, how arms sales might affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and America's mediation and leadership role. Arms sales that sacrifice stability and security for short-term gain are much less appealing in the current political environment. America's friends in the Arab world would be better off directing government spending toward education, political and social reform than toward purchasing the latest weaponry.