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Keith Schulz reviewed the latest political developments in Afghanistan, focusing primarily on the September 2005 parliamentary elections and the challenges facing the new National Assembly. He noted that the highly controversial Single Non-Transferable Vote system adopted by President Hamid Karzai led to the formation of a diverse parliament composed of a mix of warlords, former communists, supporters of the conservative Taliban regime, women activists, and independent businessmen.

The new Parliament faces some daunting challenges. The Afghan constitution gives the National Assembly only 30 days to consider any laws submitted by the executive authorities, leaving little time for the mostly inexperienced Members of Parliament to conduct a thorough, in-depth analysis of the proposed legislation and engage in constructive discussions. This, along with the absence of strong and disciplined political parties, Schulz argued, might render the Parliament virtually ineffective.

He also expressed deep concern about the long-term sustainability of the National Assembly. The Parliament, which includes more than 300 members, and its support personnel would require substantial funds and would strain the fragile government budget, diverting scarce resources from the reconstruction process and reducing the opportunity for rapid economic growth. The extremely high expectations of the Afghan public might prove yet another stumbling block for the newly-elected Parliament.

Keith Schulz described several key dynamics that would shape the future political landscape of Afghanistan. The crucial development will be the formation of cohesive groupings in the Parliament and their political orientation. Another issue of paramount importance will be the role the Afghan Members of Parliament choose for themselves — whether they will emerge as responsible policy and decision makers at the national level, or will give priority to their personal interests and cater to the needs of their local constituencies.

Marvin Weinbaum highlighted the successful completion of the Bonn agenda and the gradual movement of Afghanistan towards a transparent, accountable and representative government. However, he warned that the emergence of a fractured Parliament lacking discipline and organized political parties might pose the biggest threat to democratic progress. A paralytic National Assembly unable to deal effectively with the numerous challenges facing the country might discredit the legislative institution and destroy public support for democracy. The surprisingly low turnout at the September 2005 elections indicated that many may see the Parliament as a means for powerful figures to gain legitimacy and enhance their fortunes.

He also warned against setting unrealistically high standards, since failure to accomplish them would undoubtedly generate frustration and disappointment with democratic institutions. Dr. Weinbaum emphasized the traditionally decentralized character of Afghanistan, the informal value system that dominates Afghan society, and the tendency to rely heavily on relations based on personal trust. He questioned the advisability of following Western practices too strictly in the country.

Dr. Weinbaum pointed out several political landmines that would determine the viability of the National Assembly. The first important development will be the election of the speaker of Parliament. Dr. Weinbaum insisted that a neutral, rather than a partisan figure was the best option for the fragmented Afghan legislature and would ensure its effective functioning. A second milestone will be the approval of the current ministers in the cabinet by the National Assembly. At this stage, he argued that it was critical for President Hamid Karzai to strategize, exercise authority in a sensitive way, and show legislative leadership in order to avoid institutional patriotism and a possible constitutional crisis. The creation of a Liaison Office headed by a respected public figure, who has Karzai’s full confidence, is an essential first step towards close coordination between the legislative and executive authorities.