There are changes underway in the United Arab Emirates, but most go unnoticed abroad. First, I was struck by the high number of American visitors in town during my recent visit there, when I went to speak at a forum celebrating the second anniversary of Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayid’s accession to the presidency.
Just as I arrived, Karen Hughes, Colin Powell, Madeleine Albright, and the Chief of Staff of the US Air Force arrived with separate delegations and different goals. A large group representing the Guggenheim Museum was also in town to discuss cooperation with the UAE. A major international conference on breast cancer awareness and another one on women in business were just opening, with prominent American representatives in attendance. The best hotels in Abu Dhabi and Dubai were full. UAE newspapers and television provided ample coverage to the American visitors, along with prominent delegations from other countries. Posters displayed prominently on street corners announced future conferences planned for the coming months, including such featured speakers as “the first President Bush.”
When I was ambassador in the UAE 11 years ago, we had occasional visits from prominent Americans but nothing on this scale. The UAE has become a popular destination for Americans interested in commercial or humanitarian projects. The US ambassador says official bilateral relations are excellent and broad-based. Nobody mentioned the Dubai Ports flap of a few months ago. It does not appear to have discouraged people in the UAE from doing business with Americans.
Paradoxically, there is deep anxiety about the direction of US policy in the region despite the apparent desire of UAE officials and private organizations to work with the US in a wide range of activities. UAE nationals made clear to me their dismay over the US involvement in Iraq, Iran, and Palestine and their apprehension about what would happen next. Palestine was as usual part of their list of complaints, but their immediate concerns focused on Iraq and Iran.
On Iraq, the anger and disappointment over US policies is stronger than I have ever seen it. The UAE nationals I spoke with privately, (former and current officials, academics, businessmen, journalists) who are basically pro-American, want desperately for us to change some of the things we are doing.
First, they very strongly recommend the US declare loudly and clearly that we support the unity and integrity of Iraq. Everyone I spoke with insisted that supporting partition or leaving the impression that we would accept partition would be a disaster for Iraq and for the United States. They said Arabs would forever remember that decision the way they remember the Sykes-Picot agreement and blame us if Iraq disintegrated. They said that if Iraq falls apart and we do not support partition, the Iraqis will be blamed, but if it falls apart and we favored it, we will be seen as the party responsible for it. Moreover, if we favor partition, most Iraqis will assume it is inevitable and they will sit back and wait for it to happen. So, we would influence the outcome and then be blamed for it.
Second, my UAE interlocutors argued that we should find other countries to send troops to replace Americans – any others. Several suggested sending the UN – with Arab troops as part of the blue-helmet force – but not with a US contingent. Send Muslim troops. Almost anyone will do, just get the US troops out of there as fast as possible because, they said, we are the problem not the solution. When I pointed out that it would be tough to get the UN to send troops at this point, they understood but they believe it is essential to remove the irritant of American soldiers as soon as possible. When I asked if this would not lead to more bloodshed, they told me the US presence has not stopped the bloodshed, it has increased the bloodshed and we should have realized by now that we need a radical change of policy.
Finally, everyone agreed that we should declare we don’t want to keep bases in Iraq nor control Iraqi oil. People in the UAE and elsewhere in the region still believe we went to Iraq for those aims, and would be very relieved if we dispelled that idea.
On Iran, my UAE interlocutors asked anxiously whether President Bush would launch a military strike on Iranian nuclear sites before he left office, as they had heard he was thinking of doing. When I said I didn’t know and could not reassure them on that score, they expressed their conviction that a US attack would be a huge disaster for the UAE and the region. It would, they argued, provoke Iran to retaliate against American interests. There would probably be a negative spillover on America’s friends like the UAE. An attack would solidify Iranian public support behind the Iranian regime and it would not stop Iran from its nuclear program.
We have many friends in the UAE who want to continue doing business with us and continue sending their children to study here. But, they are deeply worried about the course our Middle East policy has taken under the Bush administration, especially on Iraq and Iran. As friends of America, they are sincerely hoping we will soon find better ways to approach the region. As friends of America, before it is too late to prevent more conflict.
Ambassador William A. Rugh is an Adjunct Scholar at the Middle East Institute. He was Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates from 1992-1995, and also served as Ambassador to Yemen (1984-86). Most recently he was the president and CEO of America-Mideast Educational and Training Services, Inc. (1995-2003).
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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There are changes underway in the United Arab Emirates, but most go unnoticed abroad. First, I was struck by the high number of American visitors in town during my recent visit there, when I went to speak at a forum celebrating the second anniversary of Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayid’s accession to the presidency.
Just as I arrived, Karen Hughes, Colin Powell, Madeleine Albright, and the Chief of Staff of the US Air Force arrived with separate delegations and different goals. A large group representing the Guggenheim Museum was also in town to discuss cooperation with the UAE. A major international conference on breast cancer awareness and another one on women in business were just opening, with prominent American representatives in attendance. The best hotels in Abu Dhabi and Dubai were full. UAE newspapers and television provided ample coverage to the American visitors, along with prominent delegations from other countries. Posters displayed prominently on street corners announced future conferences planned for the coming months, including such featured speakers as “the first President Bush.”
When I was ambassador in the UAE 11 years ago, we had occasional visits from prominent Americans but nothing on this scale. The UAE has become a popular destination for Americans interested in commercial or humanitarian projects. The US ambassador says official bilateral relations are excellent and broad-based. Nobody mentioned the Dubai Ports flap of a few months ago. It does not appear to have discouraged people in the UAE from doing business with Americans.
Paradoxically, there is deep anxiety about the direction of US policy in the region despite the apparent desire of UAE officials and private organizations to work with the US in a wide range of activities. UAE nationals made clear to me their dismay over the US involvement in Iraq, Iran, and Palestine and their apprehension about what would happen next. Palestine was as usual part of their list of complaints, but their immediate concerns focused on Iraq and Iran.
On Iraq, the anger and disappointment over US policies is stronger than I have ever seen it. The UAE nationals I spoke with privately, (former and current officials, academics, businessmen, journalists) who are basically pro-American, want desperately for us to change some of the things we are doing.
First, they very strongly recommend the US declare loudly and clearly that we support the unity and integrity of Iraq. Everyone I spoke with insisted that supporting partition or leaving the impression that we would accept partition would be a disaster for Iraq and for the United States. They said Arabs would forever remember that decision the way they remember the Sykes-Picot agreement and blame us if Iraq disintegrated. They said that if Iraq falls apart and we do not support partition, the Iraqis will be blamed, but if it falls apart and we favored it, we will be seen as the party responsible for it. Moreover, if we favor partition, most Iraqis will assume it is inevitable and they will sit back and wait for it to happen. So, we would influence the outcome and then be blamed for it.
Second, my UAE interlocutors argued that we should find other countries to send troops to replace Americans – any others. Several suggested sending the UN – with Arab troops as part of the blue-helmet force – but not with a US contingent. Send Muslim troops. Almost anyone will do, just get the US troops out of there as fast as possible because, they said, we are the problem not the solution. When I pointed out that it would be tough to get the UN to send troops at this point, they understood but they believe it is essential to remove the irritant of American soldiers as soon as possible. When I asked if this would not lead to more bloodshed, they told me the US presence has not stopped the bloodshed, it has increased the bloodshed and we should have realized by now that we need a radical change of policy.
Finally, everyone agreed that we should declare we don’t want to keep bases in Iraq nor control Iraqi oil. People in the UAE and elsewhere in the region still believe we went to Iraq for those aims, and would be very relieved if we dispelled that idea.
On Iran, my UAE interlocutors asked anxiously whether President Bush would launch a military strike on Iranian nuclear sites before he left office, as they had heard he was thinking of doing. When I said I didn’t know and could not reassure them on that score, they expressed their conviction that a US attack would be a huge disaster for the UAE and the region. It would, they argued, provoke Iran to retaliate against American interests. There would probably be a negative spillover on America’s friends like the UAE. An attack would solidify Iranian public support behind the Iranian regime and it would not stop Iran from its nuclear program.
We have many friends in the UAE who want to continue doing business with us and continue sending their children to study here. But, they are deeply worried about the course our Middle East policy has taken under the Bush administration, especially on Iraq and Iran. As friends of America, they are sincerely hoping we will soon find better ways to approach the region. As friends of America, before it is too late to prevent more conflict.
Ambassador William A. Rugh is an Adjunct Scholar at the Middle East Institute. He was Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates from 1992-1995, and also served as Ambassador to Yemen (1984-86). Most recently he was the president and CEO of America-Mideast Educational and Training Services, Inc. (1995-2003).