Many Egyptians hoped the government would permit a more open parliamentary vote after President Husni Mubarak won a new six-year term. Some reformers saw the parliamentary election as an opportunity for a more open political system. Instead, the balloting was marred by violence. As many as ten people were reportedly killed in the last round of voting. Security forces reportedly kept people from the polls in constituencies where the opposition was strong. Leaders of the reform movement were generally defeated. Al-Ghad Party leader Ayman Nur, who had run second in the presidential election, lost his own seat - though one member of his party was elected. No one from the informal Kifaya (Enough) movement won a seat. Besides the one member of Al-Ghad, the new Parliament will contain six members from the long-established Wafd Party and two from the leftist Tagammu'. Twelve seats among the 444 up for election remain undecided and will require by-election. President Mubarak also appointed ten members.
In contrast to the poor showing of Egypt's legal opposition parties, the Muslim Brotherhood increased its power. The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) won 311 seats. But about 88 of the 112 'independents' who won seats in the 432-seat assembly are known to be affiliated with the outlawed Brotherhood. That is a considerable gain over the 17 seats they held in the previous Parliament, and the largest representation the opposition has won at any time since the 1952 Revolution. (The previous record was some 78 opposition candidates elected in 1987.)
The 88 seats won by Muslim Brothers and nine more won by legal opposition parties give the opposition nearly 100 seats - roughly one fourth of the new People's Assembly. Most of the other 24 independents are expected to join the NDP.
The Brotherhood's victory is partly due to its national infrastructure, with local (unofficial) mosques and charitable agencies spread throughout the country, something secular oppositions parties do not have. The Brotherhood also appeals to working-class Egyptians to whom the intellectuals of the liberal reform parties have little appeal. But the Brotherhood also enjoyed an unprecedented freedom to campaign in this election, even though it found itself harassed as always in key constituencies where the leading figures of the NDP campaigned. Although running as independents, its candidates openly identified themselves with the Brotherhood. Posters with the Brotherhood slogan "Islam is the Solution" were visible around the country.
Some of the liberal reformers have charged that the government tacitly encouraged the Brotherhood in order to demonstrate to the United States that rapid liberalization of the political system could lead to a victory for the Islamists. Mubarak and other NDP figures have long argued that if Egypt is pressed into too rapid a liberalization, the Muslim Brotherhood will be the beneficiary. The Brotherhood's successes this time will be used to show that their warnings were well-founded.
The government will undoubtedly use the Brotherhood's apparent successes as an argument against further liberalization. But in fact, the Brotherhood's powers will be sharply circumscribed. The Muslim Brotherhood is still illegal and is not therefore a political party in the eyes of the law. That means that, despite the presence of some 88 Muslim Brothers or their allies in the People's Assembly, the Wafd Party becomes the official leader of the opposition with its six seats, the second most seats won by a legal political party in the election.
Furthermore, although there were ten candidates in the presidential election, the law provided that for future votes, only parties which have 5% of the seats in Parliament may put forward a candidate. There is a provision for independent candidates, but with the bar set so high, it is virtually impossible one could run. The only group other than the NDP to hold more than 5% of the seats in the new Parliament is the Muslim Brotherhood. But there's the Catch 22: the Brotherhood is not a legal party. Thus, as things stand now, and unless the law is changed, only the NDP will be eligible to field a candidate in the 2011 elections. It is widely believed that the President's son, Gamal Mubarak, might fill that role, though both father and son continue to deny plans for a succession.
So, in a sense, the Muslim Brotherhood's success actually reinforces the position of the NDP. It can point to the fact that opposition politicians will occupy nearly 100 of the 454 seats in Parliament. At the same time, it hopes that reform pressures from the US will be reduced out of fear of seeing an Islamist government emerge in Egypt. At the same time, the Brotherhood has wiped the liberal opposition parties nearly off the political map, while not winning enough seats to block a constitutional amendment, meaning that the NDP can continue to change the political system in any way it wishes.
Though the results are presumably not that unwelcome for the government, the violence - and, particularly, the killings - that accompanied the vote were public evidence the elections were still a long way from meeting international standards. The violence and the overt intervention of police and other government and NDP elements in the election will, however, sully Gamal Mubarak's efforts to present himself as a reformer of the NDP.
Michael C. Dunn is editor of The Middle East Journal, a quarterly publication produced by the Middle East Institute. He is also editor of The Estimate, a biweekly newsletter that provides intelligence analysis on the contemporary Middle East and neighboring regions, and has previously taught at Georgetown University and Utah State University.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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Many Egyptians hoped the government would permit a more open parliamentary vote after President Husni Mubarak won a new six-year term. Some reformers saw the parliamentary election as an opportunity for a more open political system. Instead, the balloting was marred by violence. As many as ten people were reportedly killed in the last round of voting. Security forces reportedly kept people from the polls in constituencies where the opposition was strong. Leaders of the reform movement were generally defeated. Al-Ghad Party leader Ayman Nur, who had run second in the presidential election, lost his own seat - though one member of his party was elected. No one from the informal Kifaya (Enough) movement won a seat. Besides the one member of Al-Ghad, the new Parliament will contain six members from the long-established Wafd Party and two from the leftist Tagammu'. Twelve seats among the 444 up for election remain undecided and will require by-election. President Mubarak also appointed ten members.
In contrast to the poor showing of Egypt's legal opposition parties, the Muslim Brotherhood increased its power. The ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) won 311 seats. But about 88 of the 112 'independents' who won seats in the 432-seat assembly are known to be affiliated with the outlawed Brotherhood. That is a considerable gain over the 17 seats they held in the previous Parliament, and the largest representation the opposition has won at any time since the 1952 Revolution. (The previous record was some 78 opposition candidates elected in 1987.)
The 88 seats won by Muslim Brothers and nine more won by legal opposition parties give the opposition nearly 100 seats - roughly one fourth of the new People's Assembly. Most of the other 24 independents are expected to join the NDP.
The Brotherhood's victory is partly due to its national infrastructure, with local (unofficial) mosques and charitable agencies spread throughout the country, something secular oppositions parties do not have. The Brotherhood also appeals to working-class Egyptians to whom the intellectuals of the liberal reform parties have little appeal. But the Brotherhood also enjoyed an unprecedented freedom to campaign in this election, even though it found itself harassed as always in key constituencies where the leading figures of the NDP campaigned. Although running as independents, its candidates openly identified themselves with the Brotherhood. Posters with the Brotherhood slogan "Islam is the Solution" were visible around the country.
Some of the liberal reformers have charged that the government tacitly encouraged the Brotherhood in order to demonstrate to the United States that rapid liberalization of the political system could lead to a victory for the Islamists. Mubarak and other NDP figures have long argued that if Egypt is pressed into too rapid a liberalization, the Muslim Brotherhood will be the beneficiary. The Brotherhood's successes this time will be used to show that their warnings were well-founded.
The government will undoubtedly use the Brotherhood's apparent successes as an argument against further liberalization. But in fact, the Brotherhood's powers will be sharply circumscribed. The Muslim Brotherhood is still illegal and is not therefore a political party in the eyes of the law. That means that, despite the presence of some 88 Muslim Brothers or their allies in the People's Assembly, the Wafd Party becomes the official leader of the opposition with its six seats, the second most seats won by a legal political party in the election.
Furthermore, although there were ten candidates in the presidential election, the law provided that for future votes, only parties which have 5% of the seats in Parliament may put forward a candidate. There is a provision for independent candidates, but with the bar set so high, it is virtually impossible one could run. The only group other than the NDP to hold more than 5% of the seats in the new Parliament is the Muslim Brotherhood. But there's the Catch 22: the Brotherhood is not a legal party. Thus, as things stand now, and unless the law is changed, only the NDP will be eligible to field a candidate in the 2011 elections. It is widely believed that the President's son, Gamal Mubarak, might fill that role, though both father and son continue to deny plans for a succession.
So, in a sense, the Muslim Brotherhood's success actually reinforces the position of the NDP. It can point to the fact that opposition politicians will occupy nearly 100 of the 454 seats in Parliament. At the same time, it hopes that reform pressures from the US will be reduced out of fear of seeing an Islamist government emerge in Egypt. At the same time, the Brotherhood has wiped the liberal opposition parties nearly off the political map, while not winning enough seats to block a constitutional amendment, meaning that the NDP can continue to change the political system in any way it wishes.
Though the results are presumably not that unwelcome for the government, the violence - and, particularly, the killings - that accompanied the vote were public evidence the elections were still a long way from meeting international standards. The violence and the overt intervention of police and other government and NDP elements in the election will, however, sully Gamal Mubarak's efforts to present himself as a reformer of the NDP.
Michael C. Dunn is editor of The Middle East Journal, a quarterly publication produced by the Middle East Institute. He is also editor of The Estimate, a biweekly newsletter that provides intelligence analysis on the contemporary Middle East and neighboring regions, and has previously taught at Georgetown University and Utah State University.