Twice a year with regularity, diplomats at the UN adopt a one-page resolution describing the latest take on a final political status for a distant and forlorn patch of the Sahara desert in North Africa.
The UN Security Council has come up again with a decision that, despite appearances, is still not clear-cut. With both sides of the dispute digging up even more deeply in the shifting sand of this forlorn part of the Sahara desert, the Security Council has issued a blank check to start good faith negotiations following an ambivalent report on the validity of these clashing aspirations for a settlement of the conflict.
Meanwhile, 150,000 Saharan refugees have been languishing in makeshift camps in southwestern Algeria for more than 30 years. They await an elusive dream of the right to return to the Western Sahara while Morocco is said to spend 20% of its budget on keeping the territory busy with military and development projects.
Moroccan diplomats have finished a whirlwind tour of friendly capitals to drum up support for a new autonomy plan that provides a unilateral basis for negotiations but stops short of an acceptable alternative to previous peace plans. Scare-mongering tactics about Al-Qa‘ida settling in the territory are not likely to change the lasting deadlock with the pro-independence, Algeria-backed Polisario movement, particularly after suicide attacks in Algiers and Casablanca. In the end, no autonomy plan will make it to the negotiating table unless a self-determination referendum or other mutually acceptable political solution is found.
More than 120,000 Moroccan troops are positioned along the defensive sand wall that separates the Polisario-controlled eastern swath of land and two-thirds of the territory under Moroccan’s rule. Western Sahara has more troops per square mile than any other part of the Sahara.
Moroccan claims that the territory is infested with illicit operations and terrorist groups seem out of context. The Western Sahara territory is, however, unlikely to play safe haven for international terrorists, considering it is far from being the least policed area of the whole Sahara region. The continued stalemate between Algiers and Rabat is preventing a united action against terrorist threats in the region, particularly in information sharing and joint actions.
The UN’s patchy record on shepherding independence for troubled territories — be it East Timor or Kosovo — has given the international community cold feet when pursuing a costly, high risk strategy of a carefully sequenced transition to stable and democratic statehood.
Rather than wait for Algeria and Morocco to seize the right moment when historical and hegemonic grievances could give way to clear-headed accord, a transitional trusteeship should be established in the Western Sahara. On paper, the territory is still a colonial entity under Spanish sovereignty, but a new trusteeship that gives the Western Sahara to Morocco as administering power — with the UN Security Council retaining the ultimate sovereign power and oversight — could provide a constructive blue print for future peace talks.
A neutral, demilitarized territory with robust UN peacekeeping forces to monitor the agreement and cease-fire would address the security dilemma that plagues the lingering conflict, as both Rabat and Algiers see control over Western Sahara in a zero-sum game equation in their respective quest for regional supremacy. In addition, confidence and security building measures for the region, including Mauritania, could pave the way for a new Maghreb community. Given North Africa’s increasing strategic interest for the US and Europe, finding ways to unlock the stalemate in Western Sahara has gained renewed momentum.
The US military is gearing up to create a unified combatant command in Africa to beef up security cooperation and military assistance. It is time now for the European diplomacy to re-engage in what has always been considered Europe’s traditional sphere of influence.
The threat of more terrorist infiltrations into its southern flanks has heightened Europe’s interest in the Maghreb. Now a real regional terrorist threat that focuses on Algeria’s precarious civil peace and Morocco’s fragile democratic experiment may deflect the West’s already-too-short attention span away from the Western Sahara dispute. So it is up to Rabat and Algiers to refocus their efforts on resolving the Western Sahara dispute once and for all.
Jacques Roussellier is adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., and international political analyst. He previously was specialist ombudsman for the private sector lending arm of the World Bank Group and spokesperson for the United Nations peacekeeping operations in Western Sahara.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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Twice a year with regularity, diplomats at the UN adopt a one-page resolution describing the latest take on a final political status for a distant and forlorn patch of the Sahara desert in North Africa.
The UN Security Council has come up again with a decision that, despite appearances, is still not clear-cut. With both sides of the dispute digging up even more deeply in the shifting sand of this forlorn part of the Sahara desert, the Security Council has issued a blank check to start good faith negotiations following an ambivalent report on the validity of these clashing aspirations for a settlement of the conflict.
Meanwhile, 150,000 Saharan refugees have been languishing in makeshift camps in southwestern Algeria for more than 30 years. They await an elusive dream of the right to return to the Western Sahara while Morocco is said to spend 20% of its budget on keeping the territory busy with military and development projects.
Moroccan diplomats have finished a whirlwind tour of friendly capitals to drum up support for a new autonomy plan that provides a unilateral basis for negotiations but stops short of an acceptable alternative to previous peace plans. Scare-mongering tactics about Al-Qa‘ida settling in the territory are not likely to change the lasting deadlock with the pro-independence, Algeria-backed Polisario movement, particularly after suicide attacks in Algiers and Casablanca. In the end, no autonomy plan will make it to the negotiating table unless a self-determination referendum or other mutually acceptable political solution is found.
More than 120,000 Moroccan troops are positioned along the defensive sand wall that separates the Polisario-controlled eastern swath of land and two-thirds of the territory under Moroccan’s rule. Western Sahara has more troops per square mile than any other part of the Sahara.
Moroccan claims that the territory is infested with illicit operations and terrorist groups seem out of context. The Western Sahara territory is, however, unlikely to play safe haven for international terrorists, considering it is far from being the least policed area of the whole Sahara region. The continued stalemate between Algiers and Rabat is preventing a united action against terrorist threats in the region, particularly in information sharing and joint actions.
The UN’s patchy record on shepherding independence for troubled territories — be it East Timor or Kosovo — has given the international community cold feet when pursuing a costly, high risk strategy of a carefully sequenced transition to stable and democratic statehood.
Rather than wait for Algeria and Morocco to seize the right moment when historical and hegemonic grievances could give way to clear-headed accord, a transitional trusteeship should be established in the Western Sahara. On paper, the territory is still a colonial entity under Spanish sovereignty, but a new trusteeship that gives the Western Sahara to Morocco as administering power — with the UN Security Council retaining the ultimate sovereign power and oversight — could provide a constructive blue print for future peace talks.
A neutral, demilitarized territory with robust UN peacekeeping forces to monitor the agreement and cease-fire would address the security dilemma that plagues the lingering conflict, as both Rabat and Algiers see control over Western Sahara in a zero-sum game equation in their respective quest for regional supremacy. In addition, confidence and security building measures for the region, including Mauritania, could pave the way for a new Maghreb community. Given North Africa’s increasing strategic interest for the US and Europe, finding ways to unlock the stalemate in Western Sahara has gained renewed momentum.
The US military is gearing up to create a unified combatant command in Africa to beef up security cooperation and military assistance. It is time now for the European diplomacy to re-engage in what has always been considered Europe’s traditional sphere of influence.
The threat of more terrorist infiltrations into its southern flanks has heightened Europe’s interest in the Maghreb. Now a real regional terrorist threat that focuses on Algeria’s precarious civil peace and Morocco’s fragile democratic experiment may deflect the West’s already-too-short attention span away from the Western Sahara dispute. So it is up to Rabat and Algiers to refocus their efforts on resolving the Western Sahara dispute once and for all.
Jacques Roussellier is adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington D.C., and international political analyst. He previously was specialist ombudsman for the private sector lending arm of the World Bank Group and spokesperson for the United Nations peacekeeping operations in Western Sahara.