This Perspective originally appeared in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on June 2, 2006.
Is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice engaged in the same kabuki dance that we witnessed in the lead-up to the Iraq war?
Despite the lessons of Iraq, there are still advocates in the administration pushing for regime change in Iran through military action. However, they recognize that unless the United States exhausts the diplomatic course, they will face extraordinary opposition to any attack. When coupled with the obvious downside of military action, which our military has been making clear, then it is not at all a slam dunk that would warrant attacking Iran. However, if diplomatic options are exhausted, then the odds of President Bush giving his assent to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran increase substantially.
From the earliest days of the Bush administration, then Secretary of State Colin Powell tried moving the Iraq problem to the United Nations but faced strong opposition from some in the Pentagon and in Vice President Dick Cheney's office. They were afraid he would succeed, which would make direct military intervention and regime change more difficult, if not impossible.
It was only as these individuals grew to believe that Powell didn't have a chance of succeeding that they agreed to let him try and fail, thus setting the stage for military action.
If this is true, then Rice's initiative presumes failure. There is a poison pill in the condition Rice set that "as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table."
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, having staked out a position of defiance and strength, must now recant if he is to sit down with the Americans. Who will take bets that Ahmadinejad will comply?
Edward S. Walker, Jr. is President of the Middle East Institute. He previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Ambassador to Israel, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, and Deputy Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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This Perspective originally appeared in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on June 2, 2006.
Is Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice engaged in the same kabuki dance that we witnessed in the lead-up to the Iraq war?
Despite the lessons of Iraq, there are still advocates in the administration pushing for regime change in Iran through military action. However, they recognize that unless the United States exhausts the diplomatic course, they will face extraordinary opposition to any attack. When coupled with the obvious downside of military action, which our military has been making clear, then it is not at all a slam dunk that would warrant attacking Iran. However, if diplomatic options are exhausted, then the odds of President Bush giving his assent to avoid a nuclear-armed Iran increase substantially.
From the earliest days of the Bush administration, then Secretary of State Colin Powell tried moving the Iraq problem to the United Nations but faced strong opposition from some in the Pentagon and in Vice President Dick Cheney's office. They were afraid he would succeed, which would make direct military intervention and regime change more difficult, if not impossible.
It was only as these individuals grew to believe that Powell didn't have a chance of succeeding that they agreed to let him try and fail, thus setting the stage for military action.
If this is true, then Rice's initiative presumes failure. There is a poison pill in the condition Rice set that "as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table."
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, having staked out a position of defiance and strength, must now recant if he is to sit down with the Americans. Who will take bets that Ahmadinejad will comply?
Edward S. Walker, Jr. is President of the Middle East Institute. He previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, US Ambassador to Israel, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, and Deputy Permanent Representative of the United States to the United Nations.