This Perspective originally appeared in Pocono Record on July 18, 2006.
It is urgent that the United States act forcefully to put an end to the spiraling violence involving Israel and Hezbollah. Ironically, Syria, long an ally of Iran and supporter of Hezbollah, might be the key to a solution.
Hezbollah has not embarked on a campaign of bold, robust and sustained violence in some time, so its stocks of munitions are extensive, probably allowing it to continue hammering back at Israel at present levels or with even greater intensity. As a result, it is unlikely that Israeli military action will wear down Hezbollah anytime soon.
Israel has overreacted in responding to Hezbollah aggression, widening the conflict at great risk. Pounding away at a Lebanese government incapable of controlling Hezbollah, placing all of Lebanon under naval blockade, and destroying infrastructure that all Lebanese must rely upon have only generated more support for Hezbollah from Lebanese not normally sympathetic to Hezbollah radicals. Indeed, Israeli attacks on non-Hezbollah targets may well be exactly what Hezbollah was hoping to provoke right from the beginning.
Moreover, the longer this violent exchange continues, Arabs and Muslims throughout the Middle East will become steadily more hostile toward the United States because of the knee-jerk perception that Washington is supporting all aspects of Israeli military action. This hurts U.S. efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond. It also raises the risk of terrorism against U.S. interests throughout the region.
Hezbollah almost certainly consulted with Iran, and perhaps also Syria, before initiating this unusually provocative challenge. That said, Syria stands to lose heavily if the crisis should escalate to include Israeli attacks on significant targets inside Syria. The Assad government in Damascus knows that if Israel launches attacks against Syria proper, Syria's inferior military would be defeated and humiliated, a result that might even undermine the authority of the Syrian regime. Unlike Iran, Syria does not have the luxury of being hundreds of miles away from Israel.
Syria controls Hezbollah's lifeline to Iran. Weapons, munitions and Iranian advisors pass through Syria en route to Lebanon. In past instances, facing the very real danger of a military confrontation with Israel because of attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon, Syria sometimes has been persuaded to squeeze organizations like Hezbollah to end or greatly reduce their attacks.
Washington should immediately take three actions. First, it should pressure Israel to cease all attacks on targets not directly related to Hezbollah to make clear that Hezbollah, and not all of Lebanon, is the enemy. Second, Israel should be warned not to attack targets inside Syria. Third, Washington should warn the Syrian government in no uncertain terms that if it does not act swiftly to rein in Hezbollah by threatening to choke off Hezbollah's lifeline to Iran, Israel may well take direct military action against Syria.
Heavy-handed Israeli retaliation against Lebanon proper has only strengthened Hezbollah's hand; Hezbollah has little to lose and much to gain casting itself as the heroic underdog before the easily-inflamed Arab and Muslim regional audience. Although Syria might well have favored Hezbollah's actions in the first few days of the crisis, at this stage of the game Syrian concern over how this widening crisis may unfold is surely rising. That concern should be exploited as quickly as possible in an attempt to bring this dangerous and bloody confrontation to an end.
Wayne White is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. Before his retirement in 2005, he served as Deputy Director of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research's Near Eastern Division.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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This Perspective originally appeared in Pocono Record on July 18, 2006.
It is urgent that the United States act forcefully to put an end to the spiraling violence involving Israel and Hezbollah. Ironically, Syria, long an ally of Iran and supporter of Hezbollah, might be the key to a solution.
Hezbollah has not embarked on a campaign of bold, robust and sustained violence in some time, so its stocks of munitions are extensive, probably allowing it to continue hammering back at Israel at present levels or with even greater intensity. As a result, it is unlikely that Israeli military action will wear down Hezbollah anytime soon.
Israel has overreacted in responding to Hezbollah aggression, widening the conflict at great risk. Pounding away at a Lebanese government incapable of controlling Hezbollah, placing all of Lebanon under naval blockade, and destroying infrastructure that all Lebanese must rely upon have only generated more support for Hezbollah from Lebanese not normally sympathetic to Hezbollah radicals. Indeed, Israeli attacks on non-Hezbollah targets may well be exactly what Hezbollah was hoping to provoke right from the beginning.
Moreover, the longer this violent exchange continues, Arabs and Muslims throughout the Middle East will become steadily more hostile toward the United States because of the knee-jerk perception that Washington is supporting all aspects of Israeli military action. This hurts U.S. efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan and beyond. It also raises the risk of terrorism against U.S. interests throughout the region.
Hezbollah almost certainly consulted with Iran, and perhaps also Syria, before initiating this unusually provocative challenge. That said, Syria stands to lose heavily if the crisis should escalate to include Israeli attacks on significant targets inside Syria. The Assad government in Damascus knows that if Israel launches attacks against Syria proper, Syria's inferior military would be defeated and humiliated, a result that might even undermine the authority of the Syrian regime. Unlike Iran, Syria does not have the luxury of being hundreds of miles away from Israel.
Syria controls Hezbollah's lifeline to Iran. Weapons, munitions and Iranian advisors pass through Syria en route to Lebanon. In past instances, facing the very real danger of a military confrontation with Israel because of attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon, Syria sometimes has been persuaded to squeeze organizations like Hezbollah to end or greatly reduce their attacks.
Washington should immediately take three actions. First, it should pressure Israel to cease all attacks on targets not directly related to Hezbollah to make clear that Hezbollah, and not all of Lebanon, is the enemy. Second, Israel should be warned not to attack targets inside Syria. Third, Washington should warn the Syrian government in no uncertain terms that if it does not act swiftly to rein in Hezbollah by threatening to choke off Hezbollah's lifeline to Iran, Israel may well take direct military action against Syria.
Heavy-handed Israeli retaliation against Lebanon proper has only strengthened Hezbollah's hand; Hezbollah has little to lose and much to gain casting itself as the heroic underdog before the easily-inflamed Arab and Muslim regional audience. Although Syria might well have favored Hezbollah's actions in the first few days of the crisis, at this stage of the game Syrian concern over how this widening crisis may unfold is surely rising. That concern should be exploited as quickly as possible in an attempt to bring this dangerous and bloody confrontation to an end.
Wayne White is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. Before his retirement in 2005, he served as Deputy Director of the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research's Near Eastern Division.