Parliamentary elections in Qatar have been postponed until 2007. This is the third delay since 1995 but it should not be a surprise. It follows the strategy of Qatar’s ruler, Hamid bin Khalifa Al-Thani, to transform Qatar without political and social shocks into a vibrant regional and international economic and financial center. Qatar hopes the transformation will help it compete with neighboring Dubai, which is famous for its wealth, economic development, and political stability.
Qatar’s Emir is moving cautiously with his political, social and economic reforms despite internal hurdles. In 1995, he announced his desire to have an elected municipal council in Doha. He encountered strong opposition from Islamic leaders after he announced in 1997 that women would be permitted to vote and run in elections. Dr. Abd al-Rahman Bin Umair al-Nu’aimi, a professor of history at the University of Qatar and a strong opponent of the move, was jailed for 100 days.
Qatar’s leader later announced his desire to write a permanent constitution and hold general elections for a parliament. Men and women would be allowed to vote and run for office. The permanent constitution was written and approved by referendum in 2004. Now the Emir appears to be waiting for an auspicious moment to hold the promised general elections. Apparently he calculates the time has not yet arrived.
Why such caution? There are several factors: Similar general elections in the region have produced strong showings for Islamist movements. In Egypt in 2005, and Iraq and the Palestinian territories in 2006, elections have produced parliamentary majorities with strong conservative religious elements, creating new problems for these countries and the region.
Qatari society is conservative and deeply Islamic. The population would most likely vote Islamist elements into office in the parliament. Qatar is also very much a tribal society and many tribal leaders, themselves conservative, would probably do well too. The result most likely would be a new parliament dominated by Islamic and tribal leaders who would probably reject many of the Emir’s social and political reforms The Emir already is having problems with some tribes. Last year he ordered the deportation to Saudi Arabia of some 5,000 individuals of the important al Murrah tribe, a significant number for a population of only 180,000. The last thing the Emir wants to face is a tribal or Islamist-dominated parliament that is hostile to his reforms.
For now, Qatar’s leader is focusing on modernizing Qatar’s economy, raising standards of living, and improving the infrastructure, including health services, roads, housing, water, and electricity. These projects are in full swing, thanks to Qatar’s natural gas reserves, which should make it one of the leading gas exporters over the next five years. In 2005 Qatar had a per capita income of $46,000, one of the highest in the world. In the last five years, Qatar has drastically improved its educational system — bringing in foreign institutions to set up college and university courses. The government is also opening up a path for civil society organizations. A liberal law for professional organizations was adopted in 2004. A human rights group opened its doors two years ago. Women’s organizations also are permitted.
Qatar’s leader appears to have concluded that elections will not provide the framework for democracy without first providing the proper institutions and liberalized environment to build on.
Louay Bahry is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. Previously, he served as the chair of the Department of Public Administration at the University of Qatar and has taught at several universities, including the University of Tennessee, Ohio State University, and University of Baghdad.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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Parliamentary elections in Qatar have been postponed until 2007. This is the third delay since 1995 but it should not be a surprise. It follows the strategy of Qatar’s ruler, Hamid bin Khalifa Al-Thani, to transform Qatar without political and social shocks into a vibrant regional and international economic and financial center. Qatar hopes the transformation will help it compete with neighboring Dubai, which is famous for its wealth, economic development, and political stability.
Qatar’s Emir is moving cautiously with his political, social and economic reforms despite internal hurdles. In 1995, he announced his desire to have an elected municipal council in Doha. He encountered strong opposition from Islamic leaders after he announced in 1997 that women would be permitted to vote and run in elections. Dr. Abd al-Rahman Bin Umair al-Nu’aimi, a professor of history at the University of Qatar and a strong opponent of the move, was jailed for 100 days.
Qatar’s leader later announced his desire to write a permanent constitution and hold general elections for a parliament. Men and women would be allowed to vote and run for office. The permanent constitution was written and approved by referendum in 2004. Now the Emir appears to be waiting for an auspicious moment to hold the promised general elections. Apparently he calculates the time has not yet arrived.
Why such caution? There are several factors: Similar general elections in the region have produced strong showings for Islamist movements. In Egypt in 2005, and Iraq and the Palestinian territories in 2006, elections have produced parliamentary majorities with strong conservative religious elements, creating new problems for these countries and the region.
Qatari society is conservative and deeply Islamic. The population would most likely vote Islamist elements into office in the parliament. Qatar is also very much a tribal society and many tribal leaders, themselves conservative, would probably do well too. The result most likely would be a new parliament dominated by Islamic and tribal leaders who would probably reject many of the Emir’s social and political reforms The Emir already is having problems with some tribes. Last year he ordered the deportation to Saudi Arabia of some 5,000 individuals of the important al Murrah tribe, a significant number for a population of only 180,000. The last thing the Emir wants to face is a tribal or Islamist-dominated parliament that is hostile to his reforms.
For now, Qatar’s leader is focusing on modernizing Qatar’s economy, raising standards of living, and improving the infrastructure, including health services, roads, housing, water, and electricity. These projects are in full swing, thanks to Qatar’s natural gas reserves, which should make it one of the leading gas exporters over the next five years. In 2005 Qatar had a per capita income of $46,000, one of the highest in the world. In the last five years, Qatar has drastically improved its educational system — bringing in foreign institutions to set up college and university courses. The government is also opening up a path for civil society organizations. A liberal law for professional organizations was adopted in 2004. A human rights group opened its doors two years ago. Women’s organizations also are permitted.
Qatar’s leader appears to have concluded that elections will not provide the framework for democracy without first providing the proper institutions and liberalized environment to build on.
Louay Bahry is an adjunct scholar with the Middle East Institute. Previously, he served as the chair of the Department of Public Administration at the University of Qatar and has taught at several universities, including the University of Tennessee, Ohio State University, and University of Baghdad.