The Egyptian elections on September 7, Egypt's first competitive Presidential race, resulted in the expected overwhelming victory for President Husni Mubarak. There were allegations of blatant irregularities, and Mubarak's victory, claiming 88.5 percent of the vote with the number two candidate running at only 7.6 percent, evoked memories of the 99 percent victories that were often claimed before there were alternative candidates.
For all the obvious irregularities, not all the news is bad, however. As noted in an earlier Perspective, the elections did offer some interesting indicators for the future. Among them:
· Admitting Low Turnout. The last time Mubarak ran for President, in 1999, the referendum was simply a "yes/no" question about whether he should have another term. In that election, the government claimed a turnout of 79 percent of registered voters. This time around, when the presence of opposition candidates and public campaigning attracted much attention, it announced a turnout of less than 23 percent of registered voters. Most observers believe that the latest figure is itself overstated, but it is clearly closer to reality than the 1999 claim. It is also fairly obvious that at midday on election day, with turnout visibly low in the cities, the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) began trucking voters to the polls en masse in an attempt to assure turnout, suggesting the government panicked a bit about the poor showing.
· Ayman Nour ran second. Egyptians and foreign observers generally agreed that the reason Wafd Party leader Nu'man Gum'a ran was, in part, because the government encouraged him to do so in order to see him run second, ahead of gadfly opposition candidate Ayman Nour. The reasoning was that the Wafd, the old, long-established liberal party, would be a more malleable opposition than Nour's al-Ghad Party, and that Gum'a, who is 71, would be too old to run in six years when Husni Mubarak will presumably not be running - though his son Gamal may be. But, to many observers' surprise, Nour ran second, with a claimed 7.6 percent of the vote, while Gum'a ran a distant third with only 2.9 percent. That may assure that Nour's al-Ghad will also do well in the parliamentary elections and have a real chance of replacing the aging Wafd as the liberal party of opposition. It was not exactly a secret that the government favored Gum'a over Nour. On Election Day, Al-Ahram's website featured photos of the ten candidates, with Mubarak first, then Gum'a. Nour was pictured only fifth out of ten, following (in fourth place) Ahmad al-Sabahi 'Awadullah, an 89-year old known for writing books about fortunetelling.
· The Campaign Experience. Many Egyptian commentators and bloggers, while denouncing the rather obvious manipulation of the results, nevertheless praised the public rallies of the opposition, the experience of a Presidential campaign, and the sheer novelty of being able to vote for an opposition candidate.
· Attention to the Manipulation. The emergence of critical, election-watching Web sites such as shayfeen.com (shayfeen being colloquial Egyptian for "we're watching") also guaranteed that the government's sometimes heavy-handed manipulation of the vote received much attention, even though independent observers had only limited access to the polls. A court battle before the election saw the Electoral Commission barring independent observers, then announcing on the morning of Election Day that they could attend — though many were not admitted to polling places.
· Auguries for the Parliamentary Vote. Opposition parties have long had some representation in the People's Assembly, and in the 1980s sometimes had rather large blocs. Many in the opposition believe that they will be allowed to do better in the Parliamentary elections expected by November. It is also at least possible that some Muslim Brotherhood members, running under other parties, will again enter Parliament.
So the balance sheet is not entirely negative, though no one can pretend that this was a "free and fair" election on Western lines. Something has changed; the opposition has felt itself strengthened, and the government, by playing in part by the old rules, may have actually lost some support.
Michael C. Dunn is editor of The Middle East Journal, a quarterly publication produced by the Middle East Institute. He is also editor of The Estimate, a biweekly newsletter that provides intelligence analysis on the contemporary Middle East and neighboring regions, and has previously taught at Georgetown University and Utah State University.
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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The Egyptian elections on September 7, Egypt's first competitive Presidential race, resulted in the expected overwhelming victory for President Husni Mubarak. There were allegations of blatant irregularities, and Mubarak's victory, claiming 88.5 percent of the vote with the number two candidate running at only 7.6 percent, evoked memories of the 99 percent victories that were often claimed before there were alternative candidates.
For all the obvious irregularities, not all the news is bad, however. As noted in an earlier Perspective, the elections did offer some interesting indicators for the future. Among them:
· Admitting Low Turnout. The last time Mubarak ran for President, in 1999, the referendum was simply a "yes/no" question about whether he should have another term. In that election, the government claimed a turnout of 79 percent of registered voters. This time around, when the presence of opposition candidates and public campaigning attracted much attention, it announced a turnout of less than 23 percent of registered voters. Most observers believe that the latest figure is itself overstated, but it is clearly closer to reality than the 1999 claim. It is also fairly obvious that at midday on election day, with turnout visibly low in the cities, the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) began trucking voters to the polls en masse in an attempt to assure turnout, suggesting the government panicked a bit about the poor showing.
· Ayman Nour ran second. Egyptians and foreign observers generally agreed that the reason Wafd Party leader Nu'man Gum'a ran was, in part, because the government encouraged him to do so in order to see him run second, ahead of gadfly opposition candidate Ayman Nour. The reasoning was that the Wafd, the old, long-established liberal party, would be a more malleable opposition than Nour's al-Ghad Party, and that Gum'a, who is 71, would be too old to run in six years when Husni Mubarak will presumably not be running - though his son Gamal may be. But, to many observers' surprise, Nour ran second, with a claimed 7.6 percent of the vote, while Gum'a ran a distant third with only 2.9 percent. That may assure that Nour's al-Ghad will also do well in the parliamentary elections and have a real chance of replacing the aging Wafd as the liberal party of opposition. It was not exactly a secret that the government favored Gum'a over Nour. On Election Day, Al-Ahram's website featured photos of the ten candidates, with Mubarak first, then Gum'a. Nour was pictured only fifth out of ten, following (in fourth place) Ahmad al-Sabahi 'Awadullah, an 89-year old known for writing books about fortunetelling.
· The Campaign Experience. Many Egyptian commentators and bloggers, while denouncing the rather obvious manipulation of the results, nevertheless praised the public rallies of the opposition, the experience of a Presidential campaign, and the sheer novelty of being able to vote for an opposition candidate.
· Attention to the Manipulation. The emergence of critical, election-watching Web sites such as shayfeen.com (shayfeen being colloquial Egyptian for "we're watching") also guaranteed that the government's sometimes heavy-handed manipulation of the vote received much attention, even though independent observers had only limited access to the polls. A court battle before the election saw the Electoral Commission barring independent observers, then announcing on the morning of Election Day that they could attend — though many were not admitted to polling places.
· Auguries for the Parliamentary Vote. Opposition parties have long had some representation in the People's Assembly, and in the 1980s sometimes had rather large blocs. Many in the opposition believe that they will be allowed to do better in the Parliamentary elections expected by November. It is also at least possible that some Muslim Brotherhood members, running under other parties, will again enter Parliament.
So the balance sheet is not entirely negative, though no one can pretend that this was a "free and fair" election on Western lines. Something has changed; the opposition has felt itself strengthened, and the government, by playing in part by the old rules, may have actually lost some support.
Michael C. Dunn is editor of The Middle East Journal, a quarterly publication produced by the Middle East Institute. He is also editor of The Estimate, a biweekly newsletter that provides intelligence analysis on the contemporary Middle East and neighboring regions, and has previously taught at Georgetown University and Utah State University.