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Policy Brief
Currency Conundrums in the Gulf
January 17, 2008
By
Robert Looney

Executive Summary

Historically, the US relationship with the GCC countries has been largely defined in terms of security and energy issues. However, in recent years the US dollar and its influence on the currency systems in the Gulf have taken on increased importance. For years the GCC countries have pegged their currencies to the dollar, setting their currencies at a fixed rate with respect to the dollar. This practice paid great dividends in helping the individual countries establish sound macroeconomic fundamentals, especially as defined in terms of low rates of domestic inflation. However, the system comes at the cost of precluding the use of monetary policy, particularly the setting of domestic interest rates that diverge from those in the United States. A close examination of the pros and cons of the current fixed exchange rate system suggest that the time for change to a more flexible system may be at hand. For various reasons, however, GCC countries have decided to maintain the status quo, at least in the near term.

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Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Policy Brief are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.