On May 4, Egyptian President Husni Mubarak will celebrate his 80th birthday. Mubarak is now in his 27th year as President of Egypt, having taken power after Anwar Sadat was assassinated in 1981. If Mubarak survives his current six-year presidential term, which ends in 2011, he will have served longer than Gamal Abdel Nasser and Sadat combined. And he will be 83 years old.
Nasser and Sadat each designated one or more vice presidents, ensuring they had anointed successors when they died. But the Constitution does not require a vice president and Mubarak has never appointed one.
There is an Egyptian joke about this, as Egyptians love to joke about their leaders: Nasser looked for a Vice President less intelligent than he, and thus not a threat. He finally found Sadat. Then Sadat did the same when he became President, and finally found Mubarak. Mubarak has been President for 27 years, and he’s still looking for someone less intelligent than he.
Actually, Mubarak is a lot shrewder than the jokes imply. It has seemed fairly clear for some years that his son Gamal is being groomed for the Presidency. But both father and son have denied any plans for a “dynastic” succession on the Syrian model. Gamal, now in his 40s, is a businessman and banker educated at the American University in Cairo. He has gradually been rising through the administrative ranks of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), putting his own allies in key positions, and building a power base among Egypt’s entrepreneurial class. Under the revised electoral laws of 2005, and given the results of that year’s elections, only the NDP automatically will have the power to nominate candidates in 2011. The other parties did not win enough votes in 2005 to gain such influence and independent candidates would face a gauntlet of NDP-dominated institutions that must approve their candidacy.
But Gamal’s rise has not been quite as rapid as some predicted. He has not been made the NDP’s Secretary General, despite all the speculation. The “Old Guard” figure Safwat Sharif holds that post. However, Gamal is Assistant Secretary General and head of the Political Secretariat and also serves on a new senior committee whose members are eligible to stand as the party’s Presidential candidate.
If Husni Mubarak lives out his fifth six-year term, it seems reasonably certain that Gamal will be well placed to become the NDP candidate in 2011. But the groundwork is being prepared so slowly so it is less certain what will happen if Mubarak leaves the scene before then. Mubarak’s health has long been the subject of rumors in the Egyptian street.
In November 2003 he had to leave the podium while delivering a televised speech to Parliament. He returned later, but appeared pale. Officially, the incident was blamed on a combination of influenza and the Ramadan fast. On several other occasions rumors have spread that Mubarak has either died or had a serious health crisis. Usually within a day or two he appears in public to dispel the rumors. His 80th birthday will no doubt lead to renewed speculation about his condition.
If Mubarak were to die before his term expires and before preparations are complete for Gamal’s eventual rise, much would depend on the armed forces and the security services. Every President of Egypt since the end of the monarchy – Muhammad Naguib, Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak – has come from the military officer corps, the first three from the Army and Mubarak from the Air Force. The Army plays no official role in politics but remains the protector of the regime; the security services have comparable power.
One argument in favor of Gamal Mubarak has been that it is time for a civilian president, but neither he nor any other civilian can govern without the army’s support. If Mubarak were to leave the scene a quick succession would be necessary to forestall instability, and the military would likely push for a quick resolution.
Egypt’s senior military man is Defense Minister Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. Another figure with enormous influence is General Intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman, who is personally quite close to Mubarak. But both Tantawi and Suleiman are in their 70s and not much younger than Mubarak. Suleiman’s face never appeared in the newspapers until the past few years, so he has little recognition in the street.
Some other civilian figures also are mentioned as possible successors: Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, for example, or longtime foreign policy wizard Osama al-Baz, but again, both men are in their 70s. A figurehead civilian might be chosen from members of the current Cabinet, but only if they were clearly fronting for the military.
Given the uncertainty about his health, some Egyptians have argued that Mubarak should either appoint a vice president or otherwise indicate his preferred successor. Making Gamal head of the NDP instead of its Deputy Secretary General might serve that purpose, but it might also provoke public opposition to a dynastic succession. In any event, the long taboo against discussing the succession has diminished in recent years, and the advent of Husni Mubarak’s 80th birthday is likely to accelerate the discussion.
Michael C. Dunn is Editor of the Middle East Journal
Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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On May 4, Egyptian President Husni Mubarak will celebrate his 80th birthday. Mubarak is now in his 27th year as President of Egypt, having taken power after Anwar Sadat was assassinated in 1981. If Mubarak survives his current six-year presidential term, which ends in 2011, he will have served longer than Gamal Abdel Nasser and Sadat combined. And he will be 83 years old.
Nasser and Sadat each designated one or more vice presidents, ensuring they had anointed successors when they died. But the Constitution does not require a vice president and Mubarak has never appointed one.
There is an Egyptian joke about this, as Egyptians love to joke about their leaders: Nasser looked for a Vice President less intelligent than he, and thus not a threat. He finally found Sadat. Then Sadat did the same when he became President, and finally found Mubarak. Mubarak has been President for 27 years, and he’s still looking for someone less intelligent than he.
Actually, Mubarak is a lot shrewder than the jokes imply. It has seemed fairly clear for some years that his son Gamal is being groomed for the Presidency. But both father and son have denied any plans for a “dynastic” succession on the Syrian model. Gamal, now in his 40s, is a businessman and banker educated at the American University in Cairo. He has gradually been rising through the administrative ranks of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), putting his own allies in key positions, and building a power base among Egypt’s entrepreneurial class. Under the revised electoral laws of 2005, and given the results of that year’s elections, only the NDP automatically will have the power to nominate candidates in 2011. The other parties did not win enough votes in 2005 to gain such influence and independent candidates would face a gauntlet of NDP-dominated institutions that must approve their candidacy.
But Gamal’s rise has not been quite as rapid as some predicted. He has not been made the NDP’s Secretary General, despite all the speculation. The “Old Guard” figure Safwat Sharif holds that post. However, Gamal is Assistant Secretary General and head of the Political Secretariat and also serves on a new senior committee whose members are eligible to stand as the party’s Presidential candidate.
If Husni Mubarak lives out his fifth six-year term, it seems reasonably certain that Gamal will be well placed to become the NDP candidate in 2011. But the groundwork is being prepared so slowly so it is less certain what will happen if Mubarak leaves the scene before then. Mubarak’s health has long been the subject of rumors in the Egyptian street.
In November 2003 he had to leave the podium while delivering a televised speech to Parliament. He returned later, but appeared pale. Officially, the incident was blamed on a combination of influenza and the Ramadan fast. On several other occasions rumors have spread that Mubarak has either died or had a serious health crisis. Usually within a day or two he appears in public to dispel the rumors. His 80th birthday will no doubt lead to renewed speculation about his condition.
If Mubarak were to die before his term expires and before preparations are complete for Gamal’s eventual rise, much would depend on the armed forces and the security services. Every President of Egypt since the end of the monarchy – Muhammad Naguib, Nasser, Sadat, and Mubarak – has come from the military officer corps, the first three from the Army and Mubarak from the Air Force. The Army plays no official role in politics but remains the protector of the regime; the security services have comparable power.
One argument in favor of Gamal Mubarak has been that it is time for a civilian president, but neither he nor any other civilian can govern without the army’s support. If Mubarak were to leave the scene a quick succession would be necessary to forestall instability, and the military would likely push for a quick resolution.
Egypt’s senior military man is Defense Minister Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi. Another figure with enormous influence is General Intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Omar Suleiman, who is personally quite close to Mubarak. But both Tantawi and Suleiman are in their 70s and not much younger than Mubarak. Suleiman’s face never appeared in the newspapers until the past few years, so he has little recognition in the street.
Some other civilian figures also are mentioned as possible successors: Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa, for example, or longtime foreign policy wizard Osama al-Baz, but again, both men are in their 70s. A figurehead civilian might be chosen from members of the current Cabinet, but only if they were clearly fronting for the military.
Given the uncertainty about his health, some Egyptians have argued that Mubarak should either appoint a vice president or otherwise indicate his preferred successor. Making Gamal head of the NDP instead of its Deputy Secretary General might serve that purpose, but it might also provoke public opposition to a dynastic succession. In any event, the long taboo against discussing the succession has diminished in recent years, and the advent of Husni Mubarak’s 80th birthday is likely to accelerate the discussion.
Michael C. Dunn is Editor of the Middle East Journal