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Cautious Optimism: Chances for Cypriot Reconciliation 

MEI Commentary
Cautious Optimism: Chances for Cypriot Reconciliation
March 07, 2008

Reunification of Cyprus tops the agenda of newly elected president of Greek Cyprus, Demetris Christofias, and his pledges to open dialogue with the Turkish Cypriots have cast a hopeful ray of light onto what has long been a dismal situation. Christofias’ election is fraught with irony; he is a Soviet-trained member of the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL), a Greek-Cypriot Communist party, which enjoys close relations with Russia. Cyprus is now the first European Union member with a Communist party in control of the presidency. But Christofias appears to be a pragmatist rather than an ideologue. During the presidential campaign he promised to “build bridges” between the Greek Cypriot and Turk Cypriot communities on the island. President Mehmet Ali Talat of the Turkish Cypriot community promptly sent a congratulatory telegram to Christofias upon his election and reciprocated the promise. An informal meeting of the two leaders is now widely expected, which could be followed by modest confidence-building measures such as the opening of a new border crossing in the capital, Nicosia.

The political history of this highly contested island has been complicated since the British opened the way for the formation of an independent bi-national Republic of Cyprus in 1960. The initial constitutional framework provided a division of power between the majority Greek and minority Turkish communities, but it collapsed a few years later when intense political frustration led to large-scale violence and de facto partition. The situation was exacerbated after a large Turkish military forced landed in northern Cyprus following a botched Greek coup in 1974. Since then, the Greek Cypriot community has gained international recognition including formal membership into the European Union, while attempts to foster an independent Turkish political structure have languished, with only Turkey granting diplomatic recognition of the northern entity.

Attempts to negotiate reunification have been unsuccessful, including the most recent effort prior to Cypriot accession to the European Union in 2004. Ironically, the referendum promoted by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan failed when the Turkish Cypriots, a group chronically suspicious of reunification efforts, voted to approve it while the Greek side rejected the plan. Despite this disconnect, Cyprus became a member of the European Union, albeit as a divided one, with recognition of the north as a military occupied region.

This dispute has complicated Turkey's own efforts to gain entry into the EU, with member-states demanding that Turkey grant port rights to Greek Cypriot shipping. The Turks insist they will consider this option only if the Greeks accept the concept of an autonomous Turkish Cypriot regime. This has set the stage for what may be an interminable stalemate, with the ultimate possibility that a Greek Cyprus will veto Turkish admission to the European Union. This prospect prompted Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, to urge President Christofias to take advantage of UN auspices and re-launch reunification efforts with the Turks. Some might argue this was a European attempt to backtrack from its ill-timed promise to admit Greek Cyprus to the EU even before the 2004 referendum was held. This led to suspicions that the Greek community was encouraged to reject the reunification referendum.

With Christofias’ election, what are the chances for success? What will be the role of AKEL’s electoral partner, the Democratic Party, which has consistently opposed reconciliation efforts with the Turks? What will be Turkey’s role? These critical questions hover over the continuing efforts to resolve the conflict one way or another. But for the first time in some years there is reason to entertain a more optimistic attitude toward the political future of Cyprus.

Dr. Frank Tachau is an Adjunct Scholar with the Middle East Institute. He is the former Chairman of the Political Science Department at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He has been a visiting professor at several international universities including Bilkent University in Ankara, Turkey

Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Commentary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.