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Facing the Challenges of Democracy in Yemen and Al-Qaeda

 
Event Summary
Facing the Challenges of Democracy in Yemen and Al-Qaeda
June 19, 2003

Event Featuring:

Dr. Sheila Carapico

Overview

The recent elections held in Yemen resulted in a resounding victory for the ruling General People's Congress (GPC) party. The elections did not significantly challenge the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh but included more opposition party members. Dr. Carapico, an observer of the elections, discussed the prospects for further democratization in Yemen and the repercussions of the rise of the Islamic Reform (Al-Islah) Party as a main rival to the ruling government.

Event Summary

Parliamentary elections were held in Yemen on April 27th 2003. This was the third election of its kind since the country's unification in 1990. The ruling GPC won a resounding 226 of 301 seats in the parliament. The main Islamist rival party, Al-Islah, won 45 seats, while the Yemeni Socialist Party came away with only 7 seats. The rest of the seats were shared among other smaller parties (5 seats) and independents (14 seats). Only four seats were contested.

The elections mainly served as a continuation of a self-inspired process to democratize the government but more so to consolidate and empower the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh, which has been in place since 1979.

In the recent elections the Al-Islah party fared well and came out as the main rival party to the GPC. Yet, Dr. Carapico asserted, the regime's support of the United States in the War on Terror has created little resentment towards the GPC and did not have a substantial effect on domestic politics in Yemen or on the elections even though local Yemenis did not support the recent US war on Iraq.

The rise of Al-Islah can be traced back to the origins of the present regime, when in an effort to combat the socialist left who were considered the main threat at the time, the government along with individuals and the government of Saudi Arabia aided and supported the Islamic right. During the civil war that took place in 1994 between the former rulers of South Yemen (People's Democratic Republic of Yemen) and the GPC, the anti-Communist ideology of the so-called Afghan-Arabs (who had just fought the Soviets in Central Asia) was used to combat the socialists at home.

Dr. Carapico specifically noted though that it would be gravely incorrect to equate all the Islamists in Yemen to Al-Qaeda. Right wing politics in Yemen covers a whole spectrum of positions of which militant Islamism is only one fringe. In fact, both the ruling party and other parties such as Al-Islah feel threatened by the armed underground terrorist group in Yemen, known as Al-Qaeda. The bombing of the USS Cole was viewed by all parties in Yemen as an attack against their own government and society, as much as an attack against the United States.

The regime plays a significant role in the elections by its control and responsiblility for distributing funds to all political parties, giving the ruling party an advantage by its control over funds. The General People's Congress is also able to utilize government run TV and radio stations to promote its leading candidate and to subvert opposition. Yet there is no shortage of parties and although the process for creating a new party is difficult, it is possible for new ones to be created. Moreover the new electoral system allowed roughly 8 million people to register for voting out of a total population of approximately 19 million. Official figures state that 75% of the eligible population voted and while this figure is probably exaggerated, it serves as a measure of the existing democratic nature of the Yemenis populace. Finally Dr. Carapico noted that Yemen has significant potential in the Arab world to realize a functioning democracy.

1 For official information by the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum about election results go to http://www.scer.org.ye

2 The number of people who registered to vote is: 8,097,514. The official number of people who voted is: 6,128,935. The number of valid votes cast is: 5,935,541.

About this Event

Speaker Details

Dr. Sheila Carapico Associate Professor and Chairperson of the Department of Political Science at the University of Richmond in Virginia is author of Civil Society in Yemen: The Political Economy of Activism in Modern Arabia (Hardcover, April 1998). She has written numerous articles and book chapters on the Middle East, Arab women, and politics and economics in Yemen. As a consultant, she has worked with Human Rights Watch, the United Nations Development Programme and the International Fund for Agricultural Development, among others.

Attributions

MEI would like to thank the staff of the Embassy of Yemen who contributed facts and figures to this event summary. MEI also thanks members of the audience who attended this session for their comments.

Shahan Mufti, an International Politics and Economics (Middle East) major at Middlebury College, VT prepared this summary; David Chambers & Pauline Shams of the MEI Programs Department and, edited it.

Disclaimer: Assertions and opinions in this Summary are solely those of the above-mentioned author(s) and do not reflect necessarily the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.
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